What did Barak Obama tell the Israelis?

First of all I have to make it clear that I do not have inside information and I am not gazing into a crystal ball, these are my own speculations based on reliable news items. Second, my narrow angle is in regards of the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran and its effect on the stability of Iraq. Third, I do not rely on expert opinion other than my own and I am no expert; this is only an entry in a political blog.

The extraordinary reception of Barak Obama on his recent visit to Israel and the widely publicized preparations to strike Iran leave little doubt as to what is on the minds of the Israelis; they want the green light to strike.

Sen. Obama’s speech in Israel showed so much enthusiasm and sympathy with Israel’s position regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions that could be interpreted as the signal to go ahead, but it also showed a clear signal to restrain and to look at the long term; the part asserting that one strike will not stop Iran’s capacity to pursue its ambitions and the necessity of preparing for long run confrontation. In effect, Sen. Obama was saying publicly that he is with Israel for the long run if they chose to, but apparently not committed to support a strike in the short term. This is what the position looks like from the surface, I have no idea of what goes on on different levels.

The Israelis have to factor in Obama’s position before launching their strike; they also have to weigh the effect of a quick strike on Obama’s chances of winning the US presidential elections, if they go ahead then the instability created will spill over into Iraq in the form of more strife between factions which, for the most part, are united in opposing the Israeli planned action.

Israel’s risk calculations just got more complicated, but will this lead to postponement or to bringing forward of the planned strike? A recent article estimates the time frame at four months, my speculation is one to two months, more precisely after the confirmation of Sen. Obama’s candidature on August 28, and perhaps just after the 9/11 anniversary. Take it for what it’s worth from a blog’s entry.

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