The Implosion Scenario

I was mocked by friends for suggesting a link between the recent events in Georgia and the possible Israeli attack on Iran, in this context I wrote in Arabic in my blog entry on August 24:

The recent events in Georgia suggest a link with the contemplated strike (on Iran), the common factor between them is undeniable: Oil and the attempts to control its production and flow. As a consequence on spreading control over Iranian oil or securing its flow from the Gulf, the Russians will re-consider the independence of Georgia in a way where an exchange of interest may occur: Russia’s control over the Georgian pipeline in exchange for strengthening the U.S. control over the Gulf and Iran, but this exchange presumes some kind of return to the cold war and the recognition of the nuclear balance of terror with Russia, which is not on the minds of the Americans at the present.

My suggestion was confirmed in an interview with the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, where he said to Matthew Chance of CNN on August 29, 2008:

If no one wants to talk to us about (the Iran) problems and cooperation with Russia becomes unnecessary, God bless, do this work yourself.

Putin also suggested that there might be partisan motives behind an alleged U.S. instigation of Georgian hostilities against Russia. The allegation drew emotional denials from the White House spokeswoman and State Department’s deputy spokesman.

Putin’s claims about U.S. motivations are difficult to prove; how can you measure intentions and motivations? But the involvement of personnel is easy, if true then evidence will emerge, particularly from the personnel themselves who may be bound by a vow of secrecy and loyalty to the U.S. but who can make the judgment in their own minds as to the intentions of their marching orders: are they putting their lives at risk for the country or for the narrow interests of the party? Putin’s allegation of partisanship is hard to prove but the final word does not belong to him or to the White House, the final word belongs to the U.S. soldiers in the field, if they exist. If and when they speak, it could be the beginning of a political scandal on a grand scale.

In 1993, the Conservative Party who governed Canada for over forty of the country’s first seventy years called for an election. The party’s traditional support collapsed and its parliamentary membership never held more than 20 members since then, it had to merge with a younger party to regain vitality. If the U.S. voters behave in a similar fashion to their Canadian neighbors then we could be seeing the end of the Grand Old Party.

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